This morning, the National Retail Federation (NRF) released its Christmas prediction for the November 1–December 31 timeframe.
Spending on seasonal holidays is predicted by the organization to increase by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2023. In comparison to $955.6 billion spent during the same period last year, that amounts to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in overall holiday expenditure in November and December.
Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF, stated that the economy is still in a fundamentally sound state and is continuing to grow as the year draws to a close.
The holiday projection is consistent with NRF’s estimate that 2024 sales will increase by 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023.
Online shopping is anticipated to be a major factor in the rise of total retail sales. Internet and other non-store
Economic modeling utilizing a number of important economic variables, such as consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and prior monthly retail sales releases, forms the basis of NRF’s holiday forecast. To concentrate on core retail, NRF’s calculation does not include restaurants, gas stations, or car dealers.
Thanksgiving through Christmas will be six days shorter in 2024, making the 26-day holiday shopping season shorter. The economic effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton may be additional contributing factors this year. The 2024 U.S. presidential election will occur over the holidays, but “it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending,” according to NRF.
According to NRF head economist Jack Kleinhenz, the organization is still hopeful about the rate of economic expansion and activity anticipated in the second half of the year.
“Although households will spend more cautiously, household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season,” he continued.
