CAI Raises India’s 2025-26 Cotton Pressing Estimate to 337 Lakh Bales
Higher domestic consumption and imports reshape India’s cotton balance sheet as closing stocks are revised upward.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its estimates for the 2025-26 cotton season, increasing the country’s cotton pressing estimate to 337.00 lakh bales (170 kg each) from the earlier estimate of 334.00 lakh bales. The revised assessment was approved during the CAI Crop Committee meeting held on July 27, 2026, with participation from representatives of India’s major cotton-growing regions.
The revised estimates are based on inputs received from cotton-growing state associations and trade sources, along with updated cotton balance sheets covering the period up to June 30, 2026, and projections through the end of the crop year on September 30, 2026.
Cotton Pressing Revised Upward
CAI has increased India’s cotton pressing estimate by 3.00 lakh bales to 337.00 lakh bales (170 kg each), equivalent to 353.64 lakh running bales (162 kg each), with a variation margin of ±3%.
The association stated that it will continue monitoring arrivals and pressing activity in the coming months and revise estimates further if required.
Domestic Cotton Consumption Increased
Based on revised projections from the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), CAI has raised its estimate of India’s total cotton consumption during the 2025-26 season by 10.00 lakh bales to 348.00 lakh bales.
This represents an increase of 29.00 lakh bales compared with the previous season’s estimated consumption of 319.00 lakh bales, reflecting stronger demand from the domestic textile industry.
Up to June 30, 2026, cotton consumption is estimated at 261.00 lakh bales.
Cotton Imports Revised Sharply Higher
CAI has significantly increased its estimate for cotton imports during the current season.
Imports are now projected at 60.00 lakh bales, up from the previous estimate of 47.00 lakh bales, representing an increase of 13.00 lakh bales.
Compared with last season’s estimated imports of 41.00 lakh bales, imports are expected to rise by 19.00 lakh bales, highlighting increased reliance on overseas supplies.
By the end of June 2026, approximately 51.00 lakh bales are estimated to have arrived at Indian ports.
Export Estimate Reduced
While imports have increased, CAI has lowered its cotton export forecast for 2025-26.
Exports are now estimated at 15.00 lakh bales, compared with the earlier projection of 18.00 lakh bales, representing a reduction of 3.00 lakh bales.
The revised figure is also below last season’s export estimate of 18.00 lakh bales.
By June 30, 2026, India is estimated to have exported approximately 11.25 lakh bales.
Total Cotton Supply Expands
CAI estimates India’s total cotton supply for the 2025-26 season at 452.59 lakh bales, significantly higher than the previous year’s 392.59 lakh bales.
The projected supply includes:
- Opening stock: 55.59 lakh bales
- Cotton pressing: 337.00 lakh bales
- Imports: 60.00 lakh bales
The opening stock has been revised downward by 5.00 lakh bales following recommendations from a seven-member committee established to reconcile national cotton stock data.
By the end of June 2026, total cotton availability is estimated at 434.97 lakh bales.
Available Surplus Increases
After accounting for projected domestic consumption of 348.00 lakh bales, CAI estimates an available surplus of 104.59 lakh bales by the end of the crop year.
This compares with 73.59 lakh bales recorded during the previous season, indicating a considerably stronger supply position despite higher domestic consumption.
Closing Stocks Revised Higher
CAI has increased its estimate for closing stocks as of September 30, 2026, to 89.59 lakh bales, up from the earlier estimate of 85.59 lakh bales.
The revised closing stock is 34.00 lakh bales higher than the previous year’s closing inventory of 55.59 lakh bales.
As of June 30, 2026, total cotton stocks are estimated at 162.72 lakh bales, including:
- 94.50 lakh bales held by textile mills.
- 68.22 lakh bales held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, multinational companies, ginners, traders and other stakeholders, including cotton sold but not yet delivered.
Outlook
The latest CAI report points to a season characterized by stronger domestic demand, higher import dependence and improved cotton availability. While consumption continues to rise, increased production estimates and larger imports are expected to support adequate supplies for India’s textile industry and result in significantly higher closing stocks by the end of the 2025-26 crop year.
