The Indian cotton market has strengthened at the start of the 2026–27 season, despite rising arrivals and mixed signals from global futures. Higher domestic prices, tight physical availability and uncertainty over import duties are shaping market sentiment.
The previous season also showed how market expectations can differ from actual cotton demand. Traders had anticipated large closing stocks, but estimates varied widely as the season progressed.
Domestic Cotton Prices Rise
During the week ended October 9, ICE December cotton futures gained 166 points to 80.54 cents per pound. Meanwhile, Indian 29 mm cotton prices rose by around ₹2,000–2,500 per candy to ₹66,000–66,500.
The reported all-India kapas average reached approximately ₹8,520 per quintal. Cotlook A also remained above New York futures, standing at 90.65 cents per pound on October 8, against 79.94 cents for December ICE.
These price differences indicate that physical cotton prices remain firm relative to futures.
Global Demand Exceeds Production
USDA’s October balance estimated global cotton production at 117.95 million 480-pound bales, against consumption of 123.08 million bales. This points to consumption exceeding production in the current estimates.
However, speculative market positions present a mixed picture. Managed Money net length fell to 57,118 contracts by October 6, following six consecutive weekly declines. This suggests that speculative positioning has not fully matched the recent price strength.
Rising Arrivals Put Prices to the Test
Indian cotton arrivals have increased to an estimated 50,000–55,000 bales per day. Market participants will watch whether prices remain firm as more kapas enters the market during the harvest season.
The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) also remains an important market participant. After reducing its offer prices for two weeks, CCI raised them by ₹300 and sold 269,400 bales, with sales almost equally divided between mills and traders.
Import Duty Decision Remains Important
The customs-duty exemption on imported cotton is scheduled to run until October 31, 2026. Any extension or expiry could influence import costs and procurement decisions among Indian textile mills.
Currency movements, financing costs and the price relationship between cotton and polyester will also affect buying decisions.
The 2026–27 season therefore begins with competing market signals. Stronger domestic prices and global consumption estimates support the market, while rising arrivals and weaker speculative positioning remain important factors to monitor.
