ICAC Projects Global Cotton Trade to Reach 10.3 Million Tonnes by 2028/29
Latest World Cotton Trade Report highlights resilient demand, shifting trade dynamics and tightening global supply conditions.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has released its 2026 World Cotton Trade Report, forecasting continued growth in global cotton trade despite increasing supply-side pressures and evolving geopolitical challenges.
According to the report, global cotton trade is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, representing a 2% increase over the previous year. Trade is expected to expand further to 9.6 million tonnes before reaching approximately 10.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2028/29 season.
The report attributes the positive medium-term outlook to resilient global demand, changing sourcing relationships and a tightening balance between cotton production and consumption.
Tightening Supply to Shape Global Trade
ICAC projects that global cotton production will decline by 2% to 25.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, while global consumption is expected to remain relatively strong at 25.5 million tonnes.
As production and consumption move closer together, international markets are likely to become increasingly dependent on inventories held by major exporting countries. Any further increase in global demand could require exporters to reduce ending stocks, leading to higher volumes of cotton entering international trade.
China to Play a Key Role
The report highlights China, the world’s largest cotton-consuming nation, as a critical driver of future market developments.
Continued growth in China’s textile manufacturing sector and consumer demand could increase cotton imports beyond current projections, providing additional support for global trade and strengthening international demand.
Major Global Trade Trends
The 2026 World Cotton Trade Report identifies several significant developments across key producing and consuming countries:
- Global cotton trade is projected to increase from 9.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 10.3 million tonnes by 2028/29.
- Brazil retained its position as the world’s largest cotton lint exporter during 2025/26, supported by record production, competitive pricing, expanded market access and reduced availability of U.S. cotton.
- United States cotton exports declined in 2025/26 but are forecast to recover by 3% in 2026/27, supported by higher ending stocks.
- China’s cotton imports are expected to rebound strongly after a sharp decline in the previous season.
- Bangladesh remains one of the world’s largest cotton importers despite facing economic pressures, energy shortages and logistical challenges.
- Vietnam continues to strengthen its position as a leading cotton importer, supported by the expansion of its textile and apparel manufacturing sector.
- India’s cotton imports and consumption continue to be influenced by policy changes, tariff measures and growing domestic textile demand.
Policy and Logistics Create New Challenges
The report notes that global cotton markets are increasingly being shaped by external factors beyond production and consumption.
Tariffs, trade agreements, rising energy costs, logistical bottlenecks and changing supplier relationships are creating additional uncertainty across global cotton value chains. Among the most significant concerns highlighted is the potential disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect international trade flows and sourcing decisions.
Medium-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Parkhi Vats, ICAC Principal Statistician, Data Architect and author of the report, said global cotton markets are entering a period where inventory levels, policy decisions, supply constraints and consumption trends will have a growing influence on international trade.
Despite ongoing production challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, the report concludes that the medium-term outlook for global cotton trade remains positive, with stable demand and evolving sourcing strategies expected to support continued expansion through 2028/29.
