India’s cotton supply faces growing pressure ahead of the 2026–27 season. Lower crop expectations, rising textile demand and record imports are raising concerns about fibre availability and costs for the industry.
India’s cotton market faces a challenging balance between domestic production and textile demand. Erratic rainfall and moisture stress have weakened crop expectations. At the same time, new trade opportunities could increase demand for Indian textiles.
Industry estimates cited by The Economic Times suggest cotton production could fall below 280 lakh bales in 2026–27. Consumption could exceed 360 lakh bales if textile exports strengthen.
Cotton Imports Highlight the Supply Gap
India imported an estimated 71 lakh bales of cotton in 2025–26, up from 57.4 lakh bales in the previous season. These imports highlight the growing gap between domestic supply and industry requirements.
The weather outlook adds to these concerns. Moisture stress during flowering and boll development can reduce cotton yields and affect fibre quality. Industry participants have also reported that some farmers are limiting picking or shifting to alternative crops.
Cotton Prices and Import Duty in Focus
Gujarat 29-mm cotton prices reportedly reached ₹68,500 per candy after rising by around ₹4,500 since the start of the new cotton year on October 1.
Higher raw material costs are putting pressure on ginners and spinning mills. Yarn prices have not increased at the same pace, creating challenges for downstream businesses.
The 11% import duty exemption on raw cotton was scheduled to run through October 31, 2026. Reports on October 26 indicated that the government was considering an extension until at least December-end. No final extension had been announced at that time.
Global Competition and Textile Export Demand
Brazil is another factor to watch. A weaker Brazilian real can improve the competitiveness of its dollar-priced cotton exports. This could increase competition for Indian cotton suppliers in global markets.
Meanwhile, improved export enquiries from the UK and potential trade agreements with the European Union could support Indian textile demand. However, stronger exports will require a reliable supply of quality cotton.
Productivity Remains a Key Priority
Higher imports may address short-term shortages, but India also needs long-term improvements in cotton production. Climate-resilient varieties, better water management, pest control, mechanisation and traceability can help improve productivity and quality.
Strengthening farmer profitability is equally important. A more productive domestic cotton sector can support farmers, textile manufacturers and exporters.
India’s textile export opportunities are expanding. Ensuring a stable, competitive cotton supply will be essential to support that growth.
