According to the National Retail Federation’s newly issued CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, November saw some mild improvement in overall retail sales, despite the fact that two of the busiest days of the holiday shopping season carried over into December with this year’s calendar.
November’s total retail sales, excluding cars and fuels, increased 2.35 percent unadjusted year over year and 0.15 percent seasonally adjusted month over month. In October, the Retail Monitor reported improvements of 4.13 percent year over year and 0.74 percent month over month.
Five of the nine retail categories reported an increase in sales in November, with internet sales, groceries and beverage stores, and clothes and accessory stores leading the way. Note the following categories:
- Seasonally adjusted, online and other non-store sales up 1.32 percent month over month, while unadjusted sales increased 21.48 percent year over year.
- Seasonally adjusted, clothing and accessory stores saw a 0.18 percent monthly decline, but unadjusted, they saw a 4.21 percent year-over-year increase.
- Unadjusted, general merchandise stores increased 2.01 percent year over year, but seasonally adjusted, they decreased 0.05 percent month over month.
- Seasonally adjusted, health and personal care retailers saw a 0.16 percent monthly decline, but unadjusted, they saw a 1.64 percent year-over-year increase.
- Seasonally adjusted, furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 0.8 percent monthly decline, but unadjusted, they saw a 1.15 percent year-over-year decline.
According to NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, “November sales increased on top of a strong October and would have been even higher if Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday hadn’t fallen in December.” Despite reduced retail prices in many categories this year, year-over-year improvements remained strong, indicating that consumers are purchasing more goods as the economy continues to expand. We are still optimistic about our Christmas prediction.
In contrast to October, when sales increased by 0.83 percent month over month and a staggering 4.59 percent year over year, November sales were down 0.19 percent month over month but up 1.43 percent year over year when calculating core retail sales, which do not include restaurants in addition to cars and gas.
According to the Retail Monitor, core sales increased 2.33 percent and overall sales up 2.15 percent for the first 11 months of 2024. Retail sales for November and December are expected to increase by 2.5 to 3.5 percent over the previous year, according to the NRF’s projection.
