HIGH POINT — As the year turns to 2025, the mattress market appears to be poised for a slight rebound following a number of difficult years marked by economic unpredictability and disturbance.
Industry leaders and forecasters are, dare they say, cautiously confident that business will resume churning at some point next year, despite persistent obstacles such as high mortgage rates, a stalled housing market, and potential taxes on imported goods.
Stakeholders are concentrating on negotiating the challenges of a bouncing economy as the sector moves into 2025. The general belief is that, as conditions stabilize and consumer confidence rises, the category is set for a rebound, albeit a gradual one, despite remaining uncertainty.
The International Sleep Products Association’s most recent data indicates that sales of mattresses and foundations would end the year at $9.4 billion, down 4.5% from $9.8 billion in 2023. According to the organization’s projection, the industry would grow by 3% to around $9.7 billion in the upcoming year.
The data for 2025 show a little increase in units, but they do not match the price, suggesting a higher average selling price per unit. ISPA predicts that sales of mattresses and foundations will drop by 7.5% by the end of this year, from 39.7 million units sold in 2023 to 36.7 million units sold in 2024. It is anticipated that the category units would rise 1.5% to roughly 37.3 million pieces in the upcoming year.
Housing and tariffs
Some industry executives, those based on an import model, are monitoring the housing market and potential tariffs and the potential effects both could have on the firm, even if the majority are positive about the category’s future.
The move is hailed by domestic manufacturers who claim it will help level the playing field in terms of prices.
Donald Trump, the president-elect, has stated that imposing tariffs on goods entering the United States will be his top priority when he takes office. He has also warned our trade partners in North America, Canada and Mexico, that 25% tariffs will be imposed, with an additional 10% applied to goods originating from China.
Gui Peres
Ergomotion, a multinational manufacturer of adjustable bed bases, is taking a wait-and-see stance on potential tariffs, according to Gui Peres, CEO. According to Peres, the corporation will modify output as necessary and has factories in China, Vietnam, and Mexico.
“We don’t know anything specific at this time, but the tariffs area is a concern,” Peres stated. In addition to saying things, Trump occasionally poses and uses them as a negotiating chip. We’ll wait and see what transpires before taking action.
Bill Hammer
Potential tariffs may affect the cost of materials for Shifman Mattress Co., a domestic manufacturer of premium mattresses.
The New Jersey-based business purchases lumber from Canadian forestry partners for its box springs and foundations. Like Peres, Shifman President Bill Hammer stated that it is too soon to determine which nations will be subject to tariffs.
Hammer stated, “I really think that we can’t worry about things that we can’t control.” “Compared to others, we are in a better position. The bottom line is that we will pay extra for the materials if it occurs. Materials will be slightly impacted.
According to Hammer, he doesn’t think tariffs will significantly affect the luxury market. Rather, the effect will be felt at the lower end of the market, specifically at price points around $500.
Nick Bates
Potential tariffs are encouraging for future business for domestic manufacturer Spring Air International.
“We benefit from imposing tariffs,” stated CEO and President Nick Bates. “The move won’t affect us, but it will present challenges for companies that import, which is good for domestic manufacturers.”
Richard Fleck
Richard Fleck, president of Paramount Sleep Co., says there are opportunities despite obstacles. He is wary of changes in the housing market and the possibility that demand may be impacted by stock market falls.
“As long as housing is limited, prices will probably rise,” he stated. “But unless there are unanticipated crises, the overall market will continue to be strong.”
Fleck suggested concentrating on premium markets rather than sub-$1,000 items and emphasized the significance of adjusting to tariffs and investing in physical stores.
Controlled growth ahead
Aside from the tariff debate, mattress manufacturers anticipate modest, restrained growth this year because the sector has been struggling for the past few years.
Scott Thompson
According to Scott Thompson, chairman and CEO of Tempur Sealy International, “the bedding industry has been in a downturn for a long time, but we’re ready for recovery.” “With robust product innovation and more advertising, we’re positioned to gain market share as housing should turn from a headwind to a tailwind in 2025.”
According to Thompson, the business will rebound if we move past the presidential election and anticipate reduced interest rates.
He declared, “The trend is in the right direction.” Overall, we are in a great position to benefit from the normalization that will occur somewhere around 2025. We anticipate housing to be a minor tailwind next year after it has been a slight headwind for some time.
With greater peaks during vacation weeks and lower troughs in between, promotional times are becoming more significant for the bedding market. According to Bates of Spring Air, customers are concentrating on deals and promotions in order to purchase the category.
He claimed that “the sales holidays are such a factor today” and that he observes successful sales numbers for shops who advertise and promote during those crucial promotional times.
“Those who didn’t advertise on Black Friday performed worse. It’s a shift in perspective from the pandemic, when promotions weren’t required. You must now reenter the market and encourage customers to shop over the major holidays.
