Major U.S. container ports are expected to experience an early peak import season this year, with July cargo volumes projected to set a new monthly record as retailers move inventory ahead of potential tariff increases, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Retailers are increasing imports before temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs, introduced in February, are scheduled to expire on July 24. At the same time, the Trump administration is preparing a new round of tariffs linked to forced labor, with proposed rates of 10% and 12.5% for 59 countries and the European Union, which could take effect in early August.

According to Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, retailers are working to bring products into the United States ahead of the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons to reduce the potential impact of higher import costs. He also noted that supply chains continue to face disruptions related to the conflict in Iran.

Import Volumes Continue to Rise

U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in May, the latest month with finalized data. This represented a 14.9% increase compared with the same month in 2025 and a 10.1% increase over April.

For June, imports are projected to reach 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7% year over year, bringing total imports for the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, a 2% increase from the corresponding period in 2025.

July Forecast to Set New Record

Global Port Tracker forecasts July imports at 2.47 million TEU, exceeding the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU, established in May 2022 during the post-pandemic economic recovery. The projected volume would represent a 3.3% increase from July last year.

Imports Expected to Ease After July

Following the anticipated July peak, import volumes are forecast to decline:

• August: 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5% year over year
• September: 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7%
• October: 1.99 million TEU, down 3.8%
• November: 1.92 million TEU, down 5.2%

The report noted that the traditional peak shipping season, once centered around October, has shifted earlier in recent years due to factors including port labor disputes and anticipated tariff announcements.

Total U.S. imports reached 25.4 million TEU in 2025, a slight decline of 0.3% compared with 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.