UK retail sales volumes fell for the seventh consecutive month in April, highlighting ongoing strain in the consumer sector, according to the latest Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey. While the pace of decline eased compared to March, retailers remain deeply concerned, forecasting a sharper drop in May.
Retailers reported a weighted balance of -8% for year-on-year sales volumes in April, a notable improvement from -41% in March. However, expectations for May show renewed pessimism, with a projected balance of -33%. Seasonal sales were still described as “poor,” though marginally better than the previous month.
Online sales remained relatively stable in April, registering a slight dip of -1% (compared to -27% in March). Modest growth is anticipated in May, with a projected balance of +2%.
The picture was bleaker in the wholesale sector, where volumes recorded one of the steepest falls since September 2020 at -33%, down from -29% in March. A slightly slower decline of -26% is expected next month.
Combined, total distribution sector sales including retail, wholesale, and motor trades continued to shrink, posting a consolidated drop of -26% in April.
“Annual retail sales volumes fell more slowly in April, but firms remain pessimistic about the outlook due to the impact of Autumn Budget measures, persistently weak consumer sentiment, and global economic uncertainty,” said Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist at the CBI.
“These themes were echoed in the wholesale sector, which reported one of the sharpest sales declines in the past four years.”
Retailers also reported a slower decline in orders placed with suppliers (-24% in April vs. -38% in March), though deeper cuts are expected in May (-29%). Retail stock levels remained stable at +21% in April but are expected to dip to +11% next month.
In the motor trade, sales volumes experienced a sharp plunge to -50% in April (from -21% in March), though a slower drop of -34% is anticipated in May.
Sartorius urged action from policymakers:
“With no sales recovery on the horizon, firms across the distribution sector want to see the government use every lever available to boost business and household confidence. Reforming the Apprenticeship Levy, boosting technology adoption in the upcoming Spending Review, and supporting free and fair trade could help jumpstart growth during these challenging times.”
