Even though September’s retail sales were lower than August’s, consumers still spent more than they did the same month last year.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, September’s total retail sales, excluding cars and fuels, were up 0.55% unadjusted year over year but down 0.32% seasonally adjusted month over month. This contrasts with rises in August of 2.11% year over year and 0.45% month over month.
However, sales at furniture and home furnishings businesses were significantly off track, declining 4.8% year over year unadjusted and 1.5% month over month seasonally adjusted.
According to NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, “consumers pulled back a bit in September, which is historically a soft month for retail sales, after seven consecutive months of gains.”
He speculated that customers’ decision to spend might have also been influenced by geopolitical concerns, election outcome uncertainty, the port strike, and persistent service inflation.
September’s month-over-month fall in core and total sales was only the second since October 2022, when Retail Monitor started tracking sales, and the first since January. For the first nine months of 2024, total sales increased by 1.91% and core sales increased by 2.18% year over year.
Unlike the Census Bureau’s survey-based data, Affinity Solutions’ real, anonymised credit and debit card purchase data is used in the Retail Monitor, which does not require monthly or annual revisions.
Year-over-year, September sales increased in five out of nine retail categories, with online sales, apparel and accessory stores, and health and personal care stores leading the way.
Apart from the previously mentioned furniture and home furnishings stores split, the following significant industry characteristics are included:
